
Ammonia Anhydrous CAS: 7664-41-7

A Houthi closure would force API shipments to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to single digits, a stark return to the lows seen in 2020. This sharp decline threatens chemical exports, fertilizer logistics, and global shipping schedules. Supply chains must adapt to the new reality of limited tanker movements and heightened uncertainty.

Fertilizers mounted a comeback. Sales increased sharply at Yara, Mosaic, Nutrien, and OCP.

The world's nine largest container shipping lines continue maintaining Cape of Good Hope routing as their operational standard entering H2 2026. For chemical buyers shipping under CIF and CFR contracts, understanding each carrier's operating posture is now a critical component of logistics and insurance planning.

Caustic soda demand is expected to improve in H2 2026 as alumina refining and pulp sector activity gradually recovers after Hormuz-related cost pressures. Buyers and traders should monitor supply expansion, energy costs and industrial demand trends shaping the global caustic soda market.

Middle East chemical supply recovery after the Hormuz crisis will likely take far longer than expected. With QatarEnergy extending force majeure and ICIS forecasting a 12–18 month normalization period, buyers should prepare for prolonged pricing pressure through H2 2026.
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