The reopening of Gulf shipping lanes has reduced congestion significantly since the height of the Hormuz crisis, but maritime operations remain far from normal. While approximately 2,000 vessels and nearly 20,000 mariners were stranded during the peak of the disruption, hundreds of ships continue waiting for transit as H2 2026 begins.
For procurement professionals, the remaining backlog is more than a shipping statistic. Every vessel still awaiting clearance represents delayed cargo, extended working capital commitments and uncertain delivery schedules. Understanding how ships are prioritised within the exit queue is now an essential part of chemical supply chain planning.
The Backlog Has Fallen but Has Not Disappeared
The improvement in vessel movements over recent weeks has been substantial.
The number of ships waiting in Gulf waters has declined dramatically from the crisis peak, yet approximately 485 vessels remain anchored or awaiting movement as July begins.
This reduction reflects steady progress, but it also highlights the scale of the remaining operational challenge.
With actual transit rates still averaging around five ships per day, clearing the remaining backlog will require continued operational stability and efficient traffic management.
For buyers, reduced congestion should not be mistaken for immediate normalisation.
Why the Exit Queue Matters
Shipping through constrained waterways rarely follows a simple first-come, first-served process.
Instead, departures are generally influenced by commercial urgency, contractual obligations and the broader economic impact of delaying specific cargoes.
This priority system allows authorities, shipping companies and charterers to minimise the overall commercial consequences of limited transit capacity.
For chemical buyers, understanding this process provides more realistic expectations regarding delivery timing than simply monitoring the total number of stranded vessels.
Which Cargoes Receive Priority?
The current exit sequence generally reflects commercial value and operational urgency.
Cargoes with the highest financial exposure typically receive priority.
The broad order of movement is expected to follow this pattern:
Liquefied natural gas cargoes, where delivery schedules are closely tied to international energy supply commitments.
Crude oil tankers operating under time-charter agreements where demurrage costs increase with every additional day of delay.
Chemical tankers, particularly those carrying products supporting continuous industrial manufacturing or high-value contractual obligations.
Bulk carriers transporting lower-value commodities with comparatively less urgent delivery requirements.
General cargo vessels, where commercial pressure is often lower than for energy and chemical shipments.
Although individual circumstances vary, this hierarchy helps explain why different cargo categories experience different recovery timelines.
Chemical Tankers Occupy a Critical Position
Chemical cargoes occupy an important middle position within the current priority framework.
Unlike crude oil, many chemical shipments support manufacturing processes where production interruptions quickly become costly. At the same time, chemical cargoes generally involve lower daily charter exposure than LNG or crude oil shipments.
Priority among chemical tankers is therefore influenced by several commercial factors.
These include:
The critical nature of the cargo.
Contractual delivery obligations.
Buyer urgency.
Vessel scheduling requirements.
Port availability at the destination.
Consequently, two chemical tankers departing from similar locations may receive different transit priorities depending on their commercial circumstances.
Tracking Individual Cargoes Requires More Than Vessel Names
Many procurement teams are monitoring specific vessels carrying delayed chemical and fertilizer cargoes.
Examples include DAP shipments associated with vessels such as Bahri Wafi, Bahri Bulk, Bahri Trader and Chang Chang Dong Hai.
However, tracking a vessel's location alone does not fully explain when cargo will arrive.
Buyers should also consider:
The vessel's position within the commercial exit queue.
Port scheduling at both origin and destination.
Charter party obligations.
Shipping company operational priorities.
Availability of onward logistics after discharge.
This broader perspective provides a more accurate estimate of likely delivery timing.
What Buyers Should Do Now
Companies awaiting Gulf-origin chemical cargoes should maintain regular communication with both suppliers and logistics providers.
Priority actions include:
Request updated estimated arrival dates from carriers.
Confirm whether vessels have entered active transit scheduling.
Review inventory levels for products affected by delayed deliveries.
Coordinate with freight forwarders regarding revised discharge windows.
Update procurement forecasts using realistic transit assumptions rather than historical voyage durations.
These steps improve planning accuracy while reducing operational uncertainty.
Looking Ahead to H2 2026
The remaining backlog of approximately 485 vessels demonstrates that Gulf shipping continues progressing through recovery rather than operating under fully normal conditions.
Although the number of stranded ships has fallen significantly from the crisis peak, constrained transit capacity means commercial prioritisation will continue shaping vessel movements throughout the early stages of H2.
For chemical buyers, the key lesson is to focus not only on whether a vessel remains stranded but also on where it sits within the broader commercial priority system. Understanding cargo urgency, charter economics and carrier scheduling provides a much stronger basis for forecasting deliveries than vessel location alone.
As the queue gradually clears and shipping capacity improves, procurement teams that maintain close coordination with suppliers, carriers and freight forwarders will be best positioned to manage the final phase of the Hormuz logistics recovery.
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Diammonium Phosphate (Technical 16-46) - Vietnam CAS: 7783-28-0
